Tensions are rising in Belarus. On Sunday, 16th August, people were bussed in to a pro-Government rally in the capital city of Minsk. But a few hours later this was far outstripped by an opposition rally that has been described as the largest protest in the history of the country, when over 200,000 people took to the streets.
This latest crisis was sparked off in May when pro-democracy activist Siarhei Tsikhanouski announced his intention to run for the Presidency. Two days later he was arrested and his wife, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a human rights activist, then took over his candidacy as Leader of the Nation. Ms Svetlana, often described as a ‘mere housewife’, unexpectedly gathered support from thousands of Belarusians from all walks of life and became a serious threat to Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian President of 26 years.
No independent observers were invited to the election, which was held on the 9th August and when the Central Election Commission declared that Mr Lukashenko had won 80% of the votes, widespread vote-rigging was suspected and people came out in protest. The Government crack-down was brutal. Thousands were arrested, beaten and many were tortured.
Ms Svetlana fled to Lithuania and solidarity rallies were held in Romania, Poland, Ukraine and Russia. More seriously for Mr Lukashenko is the criticism emanating from some of his own supporters, one being the Belarusian Ambassador to Slovakia. Despite growing opposition and widespread strikes, the President has stood firm against calls for him to stand down. On the 19th August, the European Council called a virtual meeting to discuss the growing crisis.
As each day passes, all eyes turning to neighbouring Russia. How will President Putin react as he sees Mr Lukashenko lose power in the face of a ‘popular uprising’? Belarus was once part of the USSR; the Belarusian President is a product of the Soviet System. The country is bordered by Russia in the northeast and in the southwest by Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. These are all countries that since the breakup of the Soviet Union, have looked to the West. Crucially for Russia, Belarus has served as a buffer state between herself and the Western-influenced states.
It is said that Mr Lukashenko has appealed to Mr Putin for support. But even if Russia is committed to supporting Belarus, the big question is, what sort of support is likely to be forthcoming? While the Soviets intervened in Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Afghanistan in 1979, Russia received widespread condemnation for her intervention in Ukraine in 2014.
It is unlikely that Mr Putin has the appetite for sending troops into Belarus despite the fact that the EU countries are voicing their fear of such a possibility. In the meantime, China has expressed support for Mr Lukashenko. This is not surprising since President Xi Jinping is another authoritarian leader who does not hold back from suppressing dissent.
The Belarusian Government has increased its grip on journalists with accreditations being withdrawn, arrests and the deportation of foreign press. Despite this, protests continue and on the 29th August , over 10,000 women took to the streets.
The country is caught between East and West and between two political systems. The 'West' supports Ms Svetlana and her pro-democracy activists, while Belarus and Russia accuse the West of outside interference,
The final outcome of this tug-of-war will probably depend upon wider geo-political issues.
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